But there could still be surprises ahead of election day on 3 November ... and even after.
WHO IS LEADING?
- With less than 48 hours till Election Day, polls showed Donald Trump lagging behind Democrat and former Vice-President Joe Biden.
- According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken Oct 27-29, Biden is ahead 51 per cent to 43 per cent nationally.
- But remember the polls got it wrong in 2016? Democrat Hillary Clinton led in many polls over Trump throughout that election cycle in 2016 but fell short in her quest for the White House.
HOW MANY AMERICANS HAVE VOTED?
- U.S. voters are feeling enthusiastic about voting as early turnout is reaching historic levels.
- According to the U.S. Elections Project, more than 92.2 million (nearly two-thirds of the total votes cast in 2016) have already cast their ballots, either by early voting in-person or by mail-in.
- 92.2 million represents about 40% of eligible voters in the 2020 election.
WHY THE VOTER ENTHUSIASM?
- Voters want to avoid crowding at the polls amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.
- It is also reported that Democrats are voting in much greater numbers by mail.
- While the outlook appears bleak for Republicans, Trump will be counting on Republican voters to flock to the polls on Election Day to defeat Biden.
- A winner might not be declared in the hours after polls close on 3 November as the increase in mail voting is expected to push back the release of full results in many states.
- Many state officials warned Americans to expect a delayed result as vote counting could take days or even weeks. (Nearly 60 million are mail-in ballots, so far).
- Some Democrats worry Trump could try to turn to his advantage.
- Trump has repeatedly cast doubt on the integrity of the U.S. election, particularly on mail-in ballots, claiming the method is more susceptible to fraud, although experts say that is rare in U.S. elections.
- At a rally in North Carolina, Trump told reporters that a vote count that stretched past Election Day would be a "terrible thing", saying "We’re going in the night of - as soon as the election is over - we’re going in with our lawyers”. This suggests Trump may challenge the election results as soon as the polls close. He also has hinted that the vote outcome may have to be settled by the Supreme Court.
WHAT HAPPENS IF A CANDIDATE LOSES BUT REFUSES TO CONCEDE?
- The election only comes to an end once the Electoral College sits down to count votes, which the Congress then certifies.
- Here are the key dates:
Election Day - 3 Nov 2020
Electoral College votes - 14 December 2020
Congress to certify votes - 6 January 2021
Winner’s inauguration - 20 January 2021
- This leaves plenty of time between the end of election day and Congress' certification of the results should the candidates want to engage in legal maneuvering
DOES THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE WITH THE MOST VOTES ALWAYS WIN?
- Not always, there have been four presidential elections in the U.S. which the winner did not receive a majority of the popular vote.
- The last was in 2016 whereby Democrat Hillary Clinton received over 2.8 million more votes than her Republican rival Trump. Yet, Trump won the election after garnering 305 Electoral votes to Clinton’s 227.
HOW DOES THIS HAPPEN?
- The answer lies in the Electoral College. When Americans cast their votes on November 3, they are actually voting for a representative of the candidate’s party known as elector.
- There are 538 electors in total. Each elector represents one electoral vote.
- A candidate needs to gain a majority of the votes - 270 or more - to win the presidency.
- Each state in the U.S. is assigned a number of these electoral votes based on the number of representatives (dependent on the state's population) and senators (two in every state, regardless of size)
