A local research team has recommended that the Movement Control Order (MCO) imposed by the government to contain the COVID-19 pandemic be lifted in staggered phases.
The researchers said the staggered lifting is paramount to resume economic activities in the country after some businesses came to a shuddering halt due to the MCO, which started on March 18.
The team, led by Prof Dr Naomie Salim from the Faculty of Engineering of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, has conducted a research entitled "COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia: Impact of lockdown on infection dynamics".
Her team members from the same faculty are Dr Chan Weng Howe, Prof Dr Shuhaimi Mansor, Dr Nor Erne Nazira Bazin, Assoc Prof Dr Ahmad Athif Mohd Faudzi, Assoc Prof Dr Anazida Zainal, Dr Sharin Hazlin Huspi, Eric Khoo Jiun Hooi, Shaekh Mohammad Shithil, and a public health physician in epidemiology, Dr Safiya Amaran from the Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin.
Speaking to Bernama, Naomie said her team suggested that such implementation can be executed according to each location's outbreak control level.
"It can be done by zones, based on COVID-19 health index, for instance, red zone (remain enhanced MCO), orange zone (continue MCO but increase alertness) and yellow zone (partial MCO with good practice of social distancing and hygiene)," she said on Wednesday.
Red zones are districts with more than 41 cases, while orange zones have 20-40 cases, yellow zones (one-19 cases), and green zones are those with no cases of COVID-19.
The team cautioned that the government cannot lift the MCO altogether as long as there are still new cases reported, as this may trigger another wave of infection.
They explained that the first phase of MCO enforced showed some effect but still inadequate to halt the COVID-19 outbreak due to the lack of understanding and preparation of the citizen.
They added that the second phase of MCO with enhanced measures may restrict movement, but this gradual enforcement may delay the break of this chain of infection.
Asked on their view should the government extend the MCO for the third time, her team opined that all precautionary measures must be taken to restrict the contact of an infected person, especially those who are under home surveillance and self-quarantine.
Meanwhile, the research forecasted that the earliest possible for COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia to peak is on April 19 and the latest estimated peak maybe end of May, depending on the type of prediction model.
The team has utilised a number of models, including the curve fitting with probability density function and skewness effect modelling, SIR model and System Dynamic model.
"Compared to actual total infected data from March 18 to April 6, curve fitting with probability density function and skewness effect modelling is the most accurate that has 99.99 per cent of accuracy with an estimation of 5,637 positive cases.
"However, each model has its own strength...the SIR model basically gives us an idea where based on the current data, how the outbreak would progress and from that model, it shows that the impact of MCO in creating social distance and this helps flatten the curve," Naomie said.
She also said that a more detailed System Dynamic Model is able to show that the effectiveness of the MCO phase two is still not optimum.
On how they gathered their data, she said the team extracted data from various websites such as Worldometer, 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard from Johns Hopkins University Centre for Systems Science and Engineering, Ministry of Health Malaysia website, as well as from local news websites.
On the other hand, the team said that Malaysians can be empowered by getting adequate and timely information as they must understand the importance of MCO and the reason why it is implemented, thus increasing the MCO compliance level.
-- BERNAMA
Bernama
Thu Apr 09 2020
![Local researchers suggest staggered lifting of MCO Local researchers suggest staggered lifting of MCO](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/http://img.astroawani.com/2019-02/71548998727_KUALALUMPUR.jpg)
The staggered lifting is paramount to resume economic activities in the country. - FILEpic
![Golongan belia pemacu penting bentuk masa depan industri pembuatan Malaysia - FMM Golongan belia pemacu penting bentuk masa depan industri pembuatan Malaysia - FMM](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2024-05/41715247870_SohThianLaijpg.jpg)
Golongan belia pemacu penting bentuk masa depan industri pembuatan Malaysia - FMM
Pemimpin perniagaan dan usahawan daripada golongan belia merupakan pemacu penting yang akan membentuk masa depan industri pembuatan Malaysia, kata Presiden Persekutuan Pekilang-Pekilang Malaysia.
AWANI Tonight: 16 July 2024
#AWANITonight with @Hafiz_Marzukhi
1. Govt mulls amending Penal Code to deal with cyberbullying
2. England's Southgate resigns after Euro 2024 Final defeat
#AWANIEnglish #AWANINews
1. Govt mulls amending Penal Code to deal with cyberbullying
2. England's Southgate resigns after Euro 2024 Final defeat
#AWANIEnglish #AWANINews
![Empat individu termasuk pasangan pempengaruh bebas tahanan reman Empat individu termasuk pasangan pempengaruh bebas tahanan reman](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2024-05/41716613114_TBsprm.jpg)
Empat individu termasuk pasangan pempengaruh bebas tahanan reman
Kesemua individu juga perlu hadir ke pejabat Suruhanjaya Pencegahan Rasuah Malaysia (SPRM) sebulan sekali untuk melaporkan diri.
![KPT alu-alukan syor PAC guna garis panduan pelaburan universiti awam untuk anak syarikat KPT alu-alukan syor PAC guna garis panduan pelaburan universiti awam untuk anak syarikat](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2024-07/81719822088_ZambryAbdKadir.jpg)
KPT alu-alukan syor PAC guna garis panduan pelaburan universiti awam untuk anak syarikat
KPT mengalu-alukan cadangan PAC berhubung pelaksanaan dan pemakaian Garis Panduan Pelaburan dan Pembiayaan oleh Universiti Awam 2024, kepada anak-anak syarikat di bawah seliaan kementerian itu.
![SUKMA 2024: Sepak takraw wanita mungkin digugurkan SUKMA 2024: Sepak takraw wanita mungkin digugurkan](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2024-07/61720679430_AbdulKarimRahman.jpg)
SUKMA 2024: Sepak takraw wanita mungkin digugurkan
Sepak takraw wanita berpasukan berkemungkinan akan digugurkan daripada senarai acara temasya Sukan Malaysia (SUKMA) 2024 berikutan jumlah penyertaan kurang daripada jumlah minimum yang ditetapkan.
10 Berita Pilihan - (16 Julai 2024)
Antara pelbagai berita dalam dan luar negara yang disiarkan di Astro AWANI, berikut adalah yang paling menjadi tumpuan sepanjang hari ini.
![Enam rakyat Vietnam ditemukan maut di sebuah hotel di Bangkok Enam rakyat Vietnam ditemukan maut di sebuah hotel di Bangkok](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2023-12/41702437730_maut.jpg)
Enam rakyat Vietnam ditemukan maut di sebuah hotel di Bangkok
Enam orang ditemukan maut di sebuah hotel di Bangkok, Thailand pada Selasa laporan media tempatan yang memetik polis Bangkok.
AWANI 7:45 [16/07/2024] - Suspek dibawa ke lokasi | Selamat tinggal rakyat Malaysia | Harimau Malaya hilang taring?
- Polis sahkan suspek bunuh Kartini anggota polis.
- Pan-Gon enggan dedah punca letak jawatan.
- Faisal Halim sedih mentor Pan-Gon undur diri.
- Pakai reben putih di Parlimen, tak salah.
- Pan-Gon enggan dedah punca letak jawatan.
- Faisal Halim sedih mentor Pan-Gon undur diri.
- Pakai reben putih di Parlimen, tak salah.
![Isteri calon gandingan Trump letak jawatan di firma guaman Isteri calon gandingan Trump letak jawatan di firma guaman](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2024-07/41721139141_TBJDUSHA.jpg)
Isteri calon gandingan Trump letak jawatan di firma guaman
Usha Vance, isteri kepada Senator J.D. Vance yang dipilih sebagai calon gandingan bekas presiden Amerika Syarikat (AS) Donald Trump awal minggu ini, telah meletakkan jawatannya di sebuah firma guaman,
![Najib fail permohonan di mahkamah rayuan cabar Titah Adendum Najib fail permohonan di mahkamah rayuan cabar Titah Adendum](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2023-05/71683779541_TBNAJIBRAZAK.jpg)
Najib fail permohonan di mahkamah rayuan cabar Titah Adendum
Berdasarkan sistem e-filing mahkamah, rayuan itu telah ditetapkan untuk pengurusan kes pada 7 Oktober ini.
![COVID-19: Tiga kes kematian dicatat, ini lima tumpuan kenyataan media KKM COVID-19: Tiga kes kematian dicatat, ini lima tumpuan kenyataan media KKM](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2020-12/81608387912_NoorHishamAbdullah.jpg)
COVID-19: Tiga kes kematian dicatat, ini lima tumpuan kenyataan media KKM
Terdapat 108 kes positif COVID-19 yang sedang dirawat di Unit Rawatan Rapi (ICU), di mana 47 kes memerlukan bantuan pernafasan.
![Sultan Perak, Sultan Selangor, Sultan Johor antara yang hadir ke Istana Negara Sultan Perak, Sultan Selangor, Sultan Johor antara yang hadir ke Istana Negara](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2020-10/41603601255_AgongIstanaNegara.jpg)
Sultan Perak, Sultan Selangor, Sultan Johor antara yang hadir ke Istana Negara
Pertemuan itu dijangka bagi membincangkan beberapa cadangan yang dipersembahkan oleh kerajaan terutamanya mengenai penularan COVID-19.
![Pusat Jagaan Darul Hanan ambil langkah pengasingan penghuni, pekerja Pusat Jagaan Darul Hanan ambil langkah pengasingan penghuni, pekerja](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2020-10/41603025397_swab.jpg)
Pusat Jagaan Darul Hanan ambil langkah pengasingan penghuni, pekerja
Difahamkan seorang wanita warga emas yang baru masuk ke situ minggu lepas disahkan COVID-19 kelmarin.
![COVID-19: Tiga lagi sekolah di Perak diarah tutup COVID-19: Tiga lagi sekolah di Perak diarah tutup](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2020-10/41601728772_TBRazmanZakaria.jpg)
COVID-19: Tiga lagi sekolah di Perak diarah tutup
Sebanyak tiga sekolah di Perak diarah tutup selama tujuh hari mulai hari ini selepas terdapat jangkitan wabak COVID-19 dalam kalangan pelajar di sekolah berkenaan.
![Kluster Penjara Jawi: Seorang lagi pegawai penjara positif COVID-19 Kluster Penjara Jawi: Seorang lagi pegawai penjara positif COVID-19](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2020-10/71602998994_PenjaraPenang.jpg)
Kluster Penjara Jawi: Seorang lagi pegawai penjara positif COVID-19
Pegawai wadar itu bertugas di blok baharu yang menjaga sekumpulan banduan yang dijangkiti COVID-19 sebelum ini.
![SMK Lubuk China dan SK Telok Berembang di Melaka diarah tutup SMK Lubuk China dan SK Telok Berembang di Melaka diarah tutup](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2020-10/41602747290_SekolahTutup.jpg)
SMK Lubuk China dan SK Telok Berembang di Melaka diarah tutup
Dua buah sekolah di Masjid Tanah, Melaka diarah tutup selepas seorang pelajar dari kedua-dua sekolah berkenaan disahkan positif COVID-19.
![Cawangan utama BSN Kota Kinabalu ditutup, kakitangan positif COVID-19 Cawangan utama BSN Kota Kinabalu ditutup, kakitangan positif COVID-19](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2020-10/41602580788_COVID.jpg)
Cawangan utama BSN Kota Kinabalu ditutup, kakitangan positif COVID-19
Cawangan BSN ditutup bermula hari ini bagi melaksanakan kerja-kerja pembersihan menyeluruh.
![Jepun tarik balik larangan perjalanan ke Malaysia, 11 negara lain Jepun tarik balik larangan perjalanan ke Malaysia, 11 negara lain](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2019-11/41573573864_Kapalaterbang.jpg)
Jepun tarik balik larangan perjalanan ke Malaysia, 11 negara lain
Sebelas negara lain termasuk China, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Singapura dan Korea Selatan.
![Maaflah jika Abah ini mula menggunakan rotan! - Muhyiddin Maaflah jika Abah ini mula menggunakan rotan! - Muhyiddin](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2020-10/51601981174_TanSriMuhyiddinYa.jpg)
Maaflah jika Abah ini mula menggunakan rotan! - Muhyiddin
Katanya, selepas ini hukuman kompaun akan dikenakan tanpa mengira pangkat dan darjat terhadap mereka yang melanggar prosedur operasi standard (SOP) berkaitan COVID-19.
![COVID-19: 691 kes baharu dilaporkan, majoriti di Penjara Alor Setar COVID-19: 691 kes baharu dilaporkan, majoriti di Penjara Alor Setar](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2020-10/41601974463_DatukDrNoorHisham.jpg)
COVID-19: 691 kes baharu dilaporkan, majoriti di Penjara Alor Setar
Jumlah kes baharu positif COVID-19 yang dilaporkan hari ini ialah sebanyak 691.