On the surface, it may seem that deputy MCA president Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai has ‘won’ and president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek 'lost' at the MCA extraordinary general meeting (EGM) yesterday.

The bid to pass a resolution to censure Liow over his 'actions against the party', largely regarded as being Chua-motivated, has failed.

While it is a slap for Dr Chua and a boost for Liow, the numbers also speak for themselves.

It was a close call: 1,190 delegates voted against it while 965 voted for it, a mere 225 majority.

Internally, the political futures of MCA may seem clearer to the party, but outside; the public’s sentiment could perhaps be summed up by an observation by political analyst Khoo Kay Peng: “MCA is still neither here nor there”.

Astro AWANI speaks to Khoo and attempts to answer a few pertinent questions:

So what do the split votes say about Chua’s support and Liow’s bid for presidency?

“It is a win for Liow. Obviously more delegates have voted to say that it is not the right resolution to resolve the Chua-Liow dispute. But this cannot be seen as Liow’s endorsement for his presidency bid.

I think that it is a clear signal to Chua that the delegates have idea of their own. When he garnered probably the same number of votes against Liow, he knows does not have the majority.”

Will the same numbers be reflected when Liow offers himself for president in December, against Chua, or his proxy, or others?

“When it comes to a leadership contest the numbers may shift. While they may not agree with how Chua is dealing with Liow, but when you talk about voting someone into a leadership role, it is another thing altogether.

Chua must take this as a very strong signal that he does not have the majority. If I were Chua, I would reconsider my position in the party. Perhaps I would stick to my commitment not to seek for re-election. It is the convention of most party president if they are not successful in election, he or she will make way for new leaders. Chua would do well to say that he would make it a peaceful transition.

There is a chance for Liow, or even Datuk Wee Ka Siong, Gan Ping Sieu. If MCA finds that they are capable enough, they should be given a chance, right?

But right now, these leaders are just giving everyone, MCA and outside, a lot of mixed signals."

What about the three resolutions on MCA’s ‘no government post’ promise? The one to allow members to take up Cabinet post was rejected. But two others to allow state and other government positions, including GLCs, Senatorships, was passed. What does that mean?

"It is neither here nor there. This shows that the party is quite split. They are not heading anywhere. They have to decide if they want to be in national policy-making process or not. As a senior coalition member, you can’t influence policy matters if you are not in the Cabinet. It is not done at the supreme council level of BN. By just allowing senators, it doesn’t mean anything at all.

However, I also suspect there is partisanship involved as well in the votes over the government posts. They were not really addressing the issue but using it (in their internal MCA politicking).

The feedback I received was that they are concerned that Chua would appoint his own people into Cabinet, and some were trying to stop that.

I don’t think the prime minister at this point in time would reshuffle his cabinet without conclusive results from all party elections, including Gerakan and MIC. There is a need for new leadership."

Yesterday, Liow sort of hinted that when the new MCA leadership is appointed, the issue of government positions can be revisited. How would that work out?

"The part clearly has not resolved this with such a split result. If the same resolutions are tabled again or if it decides to reverse the decision on Cabinet positions, the party would be seen as flip flopping. I heard rumours that Liow intends to do that.

Right now, perhaps MCA is forgetting how it can remain relevant in Malaysia. What has clearly emerged from the Chua-Liow thing is how much rivalry is there. I don’t think they are really seriously looking into this.

Both Chua and Liow have not made their stands clear. Chua is the one who said if MCA lose votes, they won’t accept, but look at Tee (Siew Keong) and the reversal of his suspension. And the positions of Chua himself, and Ng Yen Yen. It all shows inconsistency.

It is the party’s basic instincts to want this to be reversed. My hunch is that they will reverse the decision entirely because partial reversal is not going to do the party any good."