WASHINGTON: The U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday will do much more than shape the next two years of Joe Biden's presidency, they'll help determine whether he will run in 2024 as well, political analysts and advisers believe.
While a new president's party historically suffers losses in Congress during the midterm election, Biden, 79, faces extra scrutiny.
He and advisers have said as recently as Nov. 2 that he plans to run again, and that they're already making plans. White House officials expect him to run as well.
But a wide margin of Democratic losses would be viewed as a rebuke of Biden's presidency, and increase pressure on him to cede the role to someone else, some Democrats say.
"I think we're due for a generational shift," said Thomas Alan Schwartz, a presidential historian at Vanderbilt University. "I think the midterms could be decisive on that level. If the Democrats lose badly, I think you may see a fairly strong push for Biden to take himself out of 2024."
Biden choosing to step aside, however, raises its own thorny issues:
SO WHO'S THE CANDIDATE?
Vice President Kamala Harris is currently the Democrat's top alternate candidate, Democratic officials tell Reuters, with most polls showing her second after Biden, and well ahead of most other oft-mentioned names. Michelle Obama, a voter favorite, has shown no intention of jumping into the race, and Vice Presidents who seek presidential nominations historically win them.
But Harris's approval ratings, once well over 50%, have languished at or below 40% in most polls. Her poor showing in the 2020 presidential race and lack of standout policy success as vice president have raised doubts she can defeat a Republican opponent.
Harris's office had no comment.
A trio of governors from deeply blue states - California's Gavin Newsom, Illinois' J.B. Pritzker and New Jersey's Phil Murphy - have already contacted potential donors and staff in the case that Biden stands down, according to two sources familiar with those efforts. None of the three would run against Biden in a primary, and they may defer to Harris, too, sources say.
A senior Democrat said Newsom "has told people he won’t run against Biden" or Harris. The Democrat said Newsom could change his mind about running against the vice president.
Newsom, Pritzker and Murphy's offices didn't respond to requests for comment.
Multiple failed 2020 Democratic presidential candidates could pop up too, a scenario so unsettling for Democrats it was skewered as a horror movie by comedy television show Saturday Night Live last month.
Already, about 20 politicians rumored to have 2024 ambitions have raised over $591 million since January 2021 through their aligned political operations, the nonprofit Open Secrets reported in September, including Newsom, Pritzker, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Spending in the 2020 presidential election surpassed $5.7 billion, campaign finance research site Open Secrets found, more than double the amount spent in any of the last three presidential elections, thanks to small dollar donors.
Any Democratic primary contest would weaken the party's financial firepower in 2024, which could seen spending jump again, campaign finance experts believe.
PRIMARY CALENDAR CHANGES
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) is close to making the biggest change to its presidential primary calendar in decades, which might affect who the party chooses for 2024.
Iowa and New Hampshire have long opened the presidential nominating process, but with populations at about 90% and 93% white, respectively, don't reflect the likely Democratic party electorate, estimated at 40% non-white by Pew Research. .
South Carolina, Nevada or Michigan, may host the Democratic primary instead. The changes would may have little impact on an uncontested Biden reelection bid - after all the President won the Democratic nomination with South Carolina's help.
But it could be seismic if he steps aside, forcing candidates to address the concerns of black and Latino voters early, shifting momentum of the race.
"It will have a dramatic impact. Having a more diverse early primary, including geography, will help ensure candidates address a broader range of issues and will ultimately produce a better candidate," said Karen Finney, a Democratic political consultant.
The DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee is expected to meet in early December on the issue, with a final decision by early January.
LESSONS FROM LBJ AND THE 1860s
Biden would not be the first U.S. president to decide against running for reelection.
Lyndon B. Johnson, challenged by fellow Democrats who opposed the Vietnam War, shocked the country by announcing in March of 1968, a presidential election year, not to run again. And multiple consecutive Republican presidents, beginning in the 1860s, served only one term.
The results were markedly different for the two parties, historians note. Johnson stepped down in a speech pleading for peace in South Vietnam and action from Congress on cutting the deficit, saying he couldn't devote time to "personal partisan causes" while Americans were dying overseas.
The chaotic Democratic convention and campaign ended in Republican Richard Nixon taking office. “It was a mess, largely because it was so late in the game," said Jeremi Suri, professor in the University of Texas Department of History.
Republicans in the late 1800s, however, held the White House through a time of national division, widespread anger after the Civil War and razor thin voting margins for several terms in a row, by putting up new candidates again and again.
“I think the Democratic party and the White House should not presume you need to run the same presidential candidate again to hold the White House,” Suri said.
Reuters
Fri Nov 04 2022
![What if Biden doesn't run again? What if Biden doesn't run again?](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2022-06/71655011692_CampDavid.jpg)
While a new president's party historically suffers losses in Congress during the midterm election, Biden, 79, faces extra scrutiny. - White House/via AP/Filepic
10 Berita Pilihan - (16 Julai 2024
Antara pelbagai berita dalam dan luar negara yang disiarkan di Astro AWANI, berikut adalah yang paling menjadi tumpuan sepanjang hari ini.
PAC beri tempoh tiga bulan kepada HRD Corp
Jawatankuasa Kira-kira Wang Negara (PAC) memberi tempoh tiga bulan kepada Perbadanan Pembangunan Sumber Manusia (HRD Corp) untuk mengemukakan laporan tindakan susulan terhadap syor jawatankuasa itu.
Kylian Mbappe tandatangan kontrak dengan Real Madrid
Bintang bola sepak Perancis Kylian Mbappe menandatangani kontrak selama lima tahun dengan kelab Sepanyol Real Madrid pada Selasa.
Pelepasan ketujuh air sisa nuklear Fukushima ke laut selesai
Jepun telah menyelesaikan pusingan ketujuh pelepasan air sisa radioaktif yang dirawat dari loji kuasa nuklear Fukushima Daiichi ke Lautan Pasifik pada Selasa.
Empat termasuk kapten maut dalam pertempuran
Empat anggota tentera India termasuk kapten meninggal dunia akibat kecederaan selepas pertempuuran pada malam isnin di Hutan Desa.
Pakistan sahkan 4 warganya terbunuh di Oman
Pakistan berkata pada Selasa empat warganya terbunuh dalam insiden tembakan pada malam Isnin berhampiran ibu negara Oman, Muscat.
Lima terbunuh, puluhan cedera dalam protes antikuota di Bangladesh
Sekurang-kurangnya empat orang terbunuh dan puluhan lagi cedera dalam pertempuran antara pelajar yang memprotes sistem kuota dalam pekerjaan sektor awam dan polis di pelbagai bahagian Bangladesh pada Selasa.
Kerajaan cadang perkenal pembiayaan swasta
Kerajaan menyasarkan untuk memperkenalkan pembiayaan swasta alternatif bagi memastikan kemampanan kewangan program sektor air, sekali gus mengurangkan kebergantungan pada perbelanjaan kerajaan dan mengukuhkan daya tahan.
Saya tak fitnah Guan Eng, cuma jelaskan siasatan SPRM - Muhyiddin
Presiden Bersatu Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin memberitahu Mahkamah Tinggi Kuala Lumpur hari ini bahawa beliau tidak memfitnah Lim Guan Eng berhubung isu pengecualian cukai terhadap Yayasan Albukhary
KPT alu-alukan dapatan, cadangan PAC - Zambry
Ini termasuklah cadangan pelaksanaan Garis Panduan Pelaburan dan Pembiayaan oleh Universiti Awam 2024 kepada anak-anak syarikat di bawah seliaan Kementerian Pendidikan Tinggi (KPT).
![Biden seru redakan retorik politik di AS selepas cubaan bunuh Trump Biden seru redakan retorik politik di AS selepas cubaan bunuh Trump](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2024-07/61721019915_JoeBiden.jpg)
Biden seru redakan retorik politik di AS selepas cubaan bunuh Trump
Sudah tiba masanya untuk meredakan retorik politik di Amerika Syarikat (AS), kata Presiden Joe Biden semasa ucapan mengenai cubaan membunuh bekas Presiden Donald Trump.
![Biden gesa siasatan bebas berhubung insiden tembakan Trump Biden gesa siasatan bebas berhubung insiden tembakan Trump](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2024-07/41721016439_JoeBiden.jpg)
Biden gesa siasatan bebas berhubung insiden tembakan Trump
Presiden Amerika Syarikat (AS) Joe Biden menyeru agar rakyat negara itu bersatu susulan cubaan membunuh terhadap Donald Trump.
![Trump ditembak: 'Tindakan tidak bermoral jika hanya gimik' - Penganalisis Trump ditembak: 'Tindakan tidak bermoral jika hanya gimik' - Penganalisis](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2024-07/51720941021_PresidentDonaldTru.jpg)
Trump ditembak: 'Tindakan tidak bermoral jika hanya gimik' - Penganalisis
Pakar geopolitik Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM), Awang Dzul-Hashriq Dharfizi, tidak percaya serangan tembakan terhadap Donald Trump adalah gimik.
![Biden kecam serangan ke atas Trump Biden kecam serangan ke atas Trump](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2024-07/61720922589_DonaldTrump.jpg)
Biden kecam serangan ke atas Trump
Tegas beliau, tiada ruang untuk keganasan di negara itu dan beliau mahu semua pihak mengecam insiden tersebut.
![Trump ditembak ketika kempen Trump ditembak ketika kempen](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2024-07/41720920300_DonaldTrump.jpg)
Trump ditembak ketika kempen
Calon presiden Republikan itu dilihat mengangkat penumbuk ketika diiringi ke kenderaan oleh Perkhidmatan Rahsia negara.
!['Saya calon paling layak bertanding jawatan presiden' - Biden 'Saya calon paling layak bertanding jawatan presiden' - Biden](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2024-07/71720764055_JoeBiden.jpg)
'Saya calon paling layak bertanding jawatan presiden' - Biden
Biden membuat kenyataan itu sebagai respons terhadap desakan yang semakin meningkat, menggesa beliau menarik diri.
![Biden tersilap perkenal Zelenskyy sebagai Putin pada sidang kemuncak NATO Biden tersilap perkenal Zelenskyy sebagai Putin pada sidang kemuncak NATO](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2024-07/41720744978_VolodymyrZelenskyy.jpg)
Biden tersilap perkenal Zelenskyy sebagai Putin pada sidang kemuncak NATO
Kesilapan Presiden Biden menjelang sidang akhbar yang ditunggu-tunggu boleh menentukan nasibnya dalam pilihan raya.
![George Clooney gesa Biden tarik diri daripada pilihan raya George Clooney gesa Biden tarik diri daripada pilihan raya](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2018-07/41531219123_950x600.jpg)
George Clooney gesa Biden tarik diri daripada pilihan raya
Pengumpul dana Demokrat terkemuka Clooney ikut jejak Nancy Pelosi yang mempersoal apakah perlu Biden teruskan hasrat lawan Donald Trump.
![Biden komited tamatkan penggal kedua sekiranya menang - Rumah Putih Biden komited tamatkan penggal kedua sekiranya menang - Rumah Putih](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2024-06/61717629915_JoeBiden.jpg)
Biden komited tamatkan penggal kedua sekiranya menang - Rumah Putih
Biden berdepan desakan untuk menarik balik pencalonannya sejak prestasi buruknya menentang Trump dalam debat presiden pertama mereka pada 27 Jun.
![Trump cabar Biden sertai debat tanpa moderator Trump cabar Biden sertai debat tanpa moderator](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2024-07/81720573574_tbDonaldTrump.jpg)
Trump cabar Biden sertai debat tanpa moderator
Donald Trump dakwa, Demokrat sedang mengalami "keruntuhan besar-besaran" dan cabar Joe Biden untuk tampil dalam satu lagi sesi debat.