KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia will be among the economies that will win big from the high commodity prices and will pay less of a price on the inflation side as it exports several times of its domestic production, according to a Moody's Analytics report.
It highlighted that Malaysia, Colombia, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia were among the few economies that would benefit from the high commodity prices.
"For Colombia and Saudi Arabia this is crude oil. For Indonesia and Malaysia this is palm oil, the price of which has surged following severe global shortages of Russia- and Ukraine-produced sunflower oil," senior economist Jesse Rogers said in an analysis titled "Emerging Market View: The Growth Recession".
He said across the rest of the emerging world, inflation is pushing higher, and central banks are not going to give up until it is tamed.
"Monetary policy in most of Latin America is now in the restrictive territory. And even in Southeast Asia, where inflation is a relative oddity, higher prices are sprouting.
"Central banks have snapped into action, with bank governors in the Philippines and Malaysia raising rates. Indonesia and Thailand will be next."
Rogers said central bank surveys show inflation expectations are still on the rise which could pose a problem if consumers begin to factor price increases into demands for higher wages -- something that is not as yet widespread, in large part as labour markets remain weak.
The situation is likely worse in emerging Asia, the senior economist opined.
While there is a general lack of timely labour market statistics, he said emerging Asian economies were hit harder by the Delta wave last summer, and gross domestic product contraction in the second and third quarters.
"Given that improvement in the labour market tends to lag that of the broader economy, it is not unreasonable to assume that labour markets are in less than solid shape."
Rogers said what this all means is that the best the emerging world can hope for this year is a growth recession.
That is, economies will grow, but at rates so meager that labour markets cease to improve or go into reverse.
While emerging economies are less reliant on consumer spending, the analysis said on average, than their counterparts in the advanced world, consumers make up a larger part of the economy than they used to, and they are growing in importance.
Even if central banks manage to tame inflation -- whether because supply-chain and conflict-related disruptions ease up or because central bankers squeeze it out of the economy by force -- the best-emerging markets can hope for is modest growth with little momentum in jobs, it added.
-- BERNAMA
Bernama
Tue May 24 2022
Malaysia will be among the economies that will win big from the high commodity prices and will pay less of a price on the inflation side as it exports several times of its domestic production. - Unsplash
Suruhanjaya Eropah saman Hungary atas dakwaan pelanggaran hak asasi
Budapest gagal hilangkan kebimbangan mengenai undang-undang baharu Hungary yang bertujuan mengehadkan pembiayaan asing bagi kempen politik.
PM Pakistan gembira atas perbincangan produktif dengan PM Malaysia
Bidang-bidang utama itu termasuk perdagangan, IT, tenaga, pertanian, eksport daging halal, pelancongan, pendidikan dan pertahanan.
Rwanda catat 7 lagi kes virus Marburg dan satu lagi kematian
Rwanda mencatatkan tujuh kes baharu penyakit virus Marburg dan satu lagi kematian.
Menurut angka terkini yang dikeluarkan lewat Rabu Kementerian Kesihatan Rwanda,
jumlah keseluruhan jangkitan virus Marburg sejak wabak bermula kini sebanyak 36 kes, dengan 11 kematian dilaporkan setakat ini.
Menurut angka terkini yang dikeluarkan lewat Rabu Kementerian Kesihatan Rwanda,
jumlah keseluruhan jangkitan virus Marburg sejak wabak bermula kini sebanyak 36 kes, dengan 11 kematian dilaporkan setakat ini.
Lebih 140 sekolah UNRWA diserang sejak 7 Oktober
Lebih 140 sekolah UNRWA diserang sejak 7 Oktober dalam keadaan dimana penduduk Gaza berlindung di bawah naungan PBB.
Perkara itu dimaklumkan Pesuruhjaya Agung Agensi Bantuan dan Kerja Pertubuhan Bangsa-Bangsa Bersatu untuk Pelarian Palestin (UNRWA) Philippe Lazzarini dalam satu hantaran di X.
Perkara itu dimaklumkan Pesuruhjaya Agung Agensi Bantuan dan Kerja Pertubuhan Bangsa-Bangsa Bersatu untuk Pelarian Palestin (UNRWA) Philippe Lazzarini dalam satu hantaran di X.
28 petugas dilapor maut dalam tempoh 24 jam lalu di Lubnan
28 petugas kesihatan dilaporkan terbunuh dalam tempoh 24 jam lalu di Lubnan.
Perkara itu dimaklumkan Ketua Pengarah Pertubuhan Kesihatan Sedunia (WHO) Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus pada Khamis.
Perkara itu dimaklumkan Ketua Pengarah Pertubuhan Kesihatan Sedunia (WHO) Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus pada Khamis.
UNIFIL kekal pada posisi walaupun didesak berundur
Pasukan pengaman PBB di selatan Lubnan terus bertahan pada kedudukan mereka, di bawah mandat UNSC, walaupun diarah Israel untuk berundur.
G7 desak pemain serantau di Asia Barat bertindak cermat dalam krisis
Pemimpin Kumpulan Tujuh (G7) mengulangi kebimbangan mereka terhadap krisis di Asia Barat dan menyeru pemain serantau supaya bertindak dengan bertanggungjawab serta berhemah.
Mereka turut menegaskan sokongan penuh terhadap keselamatan Israel.
Mereka turut menegaskan sokongan penuh terhadap keselamatan Israel.
AS sokong operasi Israel di Lubnan meski risiko meluaskan konflik
Pentadbiran Joe Biden menyatakan bahawa adalah wajar untuk Israel meneruskan serangan darat dan udara terhadap Hezbollah buat masa ini, menurut jurucakap Jabatan Negara Amerika Syarikat, Matthew Miller.
Namun, beliau mengakui risiko operasi di Lubnan mungkin melangkaui matlamat semasa Israel.
Namun, beliau mengakui risiko operasi di Lubnan mungkin melangkaui matlamat semasa Israel.
Shamsul Iskandar dakwa kesepakatan parti dalam PN kian longgar
Shamsul Iskandar berkata, perpecahan dalaman PN itu dapat diukur melalui prestasi mereka pada PRK DUN Nenggiri dan DUN Mahkota.
Politik stabil, dasar kerajaan tarik minat syarikat global melabur di Malaysia - Gobind
Menurut Menteri Digital Gobind Singh Deo, pada masa ini terdapat banyak perbincangan, tidak hanya antara syarikat-syarikat di negara serantau malah dunia berhubung perkara itu.