Of black swans and gray rhinos

REFERRING to a recent McKinsey study, the megatrend poised to shape the next decade’s economic and political landscape are the rise of new geopolitical risks; in short, the tussle for superpower dominance between US and China.

Black swans are commonly known as unpredictable events with high impact. Notwithstanding Russia’s overt military build-up in 2021, its proceeding to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine was arguably the core case study in 2022.

While black swans are inherently unpredictable, pushing one’s thinking to anticipate as wide a range of scenarios as possible is critical for sound planning and preparedness.

Potential black swans could run the gamut from the political implosion of a major economy; the forcible removal of a leader or a government; a significant regional military conflict; an unprecedented climate event that results in mass casualties, waves of migration, and famine; to another pandemic.

In contrast to the unpredictable nature of black swans, gray rhinos are probable events with high impact. We see these risks out there in the distance, but we don’t clearly perceive their full dimensions.

We’re sure they will charge at us, causing material damage, but we don’t know precisely when or how much.

Organizations must ensure that they have a framework in place to clear out of the way of gray rhinos when they charge.

Sometimes, multiple gray rhinos may stampede simultaneously, resulting in an even more appropriately termed “crash” of rhinos (as a group of rhinos is called).

Among the gray rhinos on the global radar is the risk of regional conflicts in Asia escalating amid broader strategic competition.

Other imminently charging rhinos may include a major escalation in the Middle East, with cooling relationships and international and domestic pressure against specific regimes that cause an uptick in direct or proxy conflict.

Rakyat-focused policies versus Government-centric rhetorics

Even Malaysia is not spared from its own swans and rhinos – multiple high impact projects that had been announced would lift up the economy, create thousands of high income jobs, open up business opportunities as well as connect millions of people in the spirit of economic prosperity, but only to be shelved or reviewed by the current Government in light of geopolitical ties and interests.

Take for example the dilemma of our rail projects i.e. ECRL and MyHSR – both significantly beneficial for the economy and the Rakyat, yet till today has still failed to bear fruit due to the endless political scrutiny.

Goods and Services Tax (GST) was also a good bolster for the nation’s fiscal stability, however due to the politicisation of the issue, has yet to see the light of day.

Similarly, Communications Minister Fahmi Fadzil’s recent announcement has also started a debate on whether our current Government is reviewing its plans out of geopolitical interests or rakyat’s benefits?

Media reports have surfaced showing the intense lobbying pressure by the telcos to derail Government’s Single Wholesale Network (SWN) in favour of the telcos proposed Dual Wholesale Network (DWN), only to leave DNB in the dark, bound to be on the losing end.

SWN helps bring costs down and maximises coverage for the Rakyat, but why does the Minister agreed to shift to DWN where telcos rule and set the rates?

Why aren’t the Ministry arguing this on the back of the dismal 4G coverage and quality issues delivered by the telcos?

Question is who benefits from this non-stop review processes? Their cronies and their political masters. In the end, the rakyat has to bear the consequences.

Go west or east? Balancing our preference

Referring to the 5G conundrum earlier, many have also said that the matter was in fact a geopolitical play between US and China, with the former trying to exert dominance whilst the latter attempting to infiltrate the nation’s 5G infrastructure for their Belt Road initiative.

Whichever it is, the right thing to do for Malaysians is to rightfully assess and balance our preferences with our national interests.

Malaysia sits in a strategic location geographically and economically, and we are one of the few countries in the world to have both superpowers as our trading partners.

It is equally unfair to blame one or the other for any decisions that we make collectively as a country; and only the government can be blamed for not making a thorough and holistic deep-dive before deciding on any certain policies especially those with direct impact to the Rakyat.

A good policy is an impactful policy, and regardless of those who benefits, as long as the Rakyat tends to gain from it, the nation could reap sustainable and long-term economic benefits as well as it does not risk the nation’s security and sovereignty, the policy should be given the chance to be implemented.

When it comes to policies – what really matters are the value as well as the consequences that it brings to the people.

In most governments, comprehensive and detailed cost-benefits and risk analyses, as well as rigorous validation exercises are done to ensure that every single taxpayer dollar does not go waste.

Do not let the promise of an easy tomorrow diminish the future of our fellow Malaysians.

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* Rahman Hussin interests is in public affairs, politics and stakeholder managements. He runs his own firm that serves a wide range of clients focusing on strategy and government affairs.

** The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of Astro AWANI.