Could 'Star Wars VII' overtake 'Avatar'?

Is the James Cameron movie a few weeks away from losing its number one ranking at the global box office? At any rate, it seems that the future is rosy for the new episode of the "Star Wars" saga.

To say that "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" is the most highly anticipated movie of the year is putting it mildly. This seventh episode slated for release on December 16 is expected to generate some big numbers, but how much exactly?

Some analysts are already predicting a final total of 2.7 billion dollars at the box office, i.e., as much as "Avatar," which has held the global box-office record since 2010. The most optimistic analysts believe it could be the first film to top 3 billion dollars.

"Star Wars VII" will be released at the same time of year as "Avatar" and "Titanic" (respectively on December 18, 2009 and December 19, 1997), the movie industry's two biggest global successes.

Instant success is (virtually) guaranteed

One thing is sure, the J.J. Abrams opus is likely to begin with a bang. Forecasts, such as that of FBR & Co's Barton Crockett, foresee $220m for the opening weekend. A record which would topple "Jurassic World" which generated $208.8m when it was released last June. With record advance ticket sales ($50m), "Star Wars" is sure to get off to a better start than "Avatar" which brought in $77m in its opening weekend.

The saga has the advantage of one of the biggest and most loyal fan bases in the world. And given this year's financial performance from "Jurassic World" and "Fast & Furious 7", both of which were much less highly anticipated, "The Force Awakens" should at least be able to match their figures.

China, nostalgia are significant factors

This new instalment will also be able to count on emerging markets like China. Since "Avatar" was released at the end of 2009, China has increased the number of its cinemas by 400%. Analysts expect this market alone to generate $450m, at a conservative estimate, i.e. just $250m less than in the US.

Another advantage is that "The Force Awakens" can play on the nostalgia card and fans' expectations. In 1999, they had waited 16 years to discover the next part of the story. "The Phantom Menace" was the franchise's biggest success and the first to top a billion dollars at the box office. In 2015, fans are impatient once again and they will be rewarded by something that the second trilogy was unable to do: bring back the original main characters. Harrison Ford, Mark Hamill and Carrie Fischer agreed to return in this episode which will see them interact with a new generation of characters, both bad and good.

Nonetheless, it will be difficult to overtake "Avatar" and its $2.7bn, because its 3D technology made it stand out so much at that time.