WHEN will the final results come in?
Polls closed about 10 p.m. local time (5 p.m. Eastern) on Thursday, and no formal exit poll will be released.
This means that only when the first vote counts start being released about midnight U.K. time, will we get our first picture of what the result might look like.
Votes will be counted until one side reaches a number that is mathematically unbeatable, which may take a while given how close the vote is expected to be.
It's thought that from early morning U.K. time, perhaps about 2 a.m. for those of us on Eastern time, the final outcome of the vote should be clear.
- - -
What happens if 'leave' wins a majority?
This is a little complicated. No country has ever voted to leave the European Union before, and it's not clear how things should proceed.
What we know is that British Prime Minister David Cameron will be expected to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which is the mechanism for a country to leave the European Union.
We don't know exactly when he would do so, although he has suggested that he would trigger it immediately, and EU leaders would push him to do so quickly.
It is possible that Cameron could opt not to invoke Article 50, perhaps instead repealing the 1972 European Communities Act and withdrawing from the European Union unilaterally. However, such a move probably would anger many EU member states with which Britain will soon be seeking a deal and force Britain to immediately legislate to replace EU laws with no transition period.
- - -
How does Article 50 work?
The article sets out how Britain would negotiate its terms for leaving the European Union. Britain would not negotiate directly with member states. Instead the member states would meet among themselves as the European Council and agree on a framework. Britain would then negotiate on the technical details with the European Commission. The European Parliament also will have a say, giving consent on the deal.
Sounds complicated? It is. And it's unprecedented, so it's not clear exactly what it looks like or how long it would take. The article clearly states that a country will have two years to reach an agreement on the exit, during which time the country would still be governed by EU treaties and laws, although it will not be allowed in the decision-making process. However, if all EU member states agree, that deadline could be extended.
It's also worth noting that Article 50 does not have a provision that allows a country to back out of the process. And if Britain ever decides it wants to be in the European Union again, it will have to go through the same process as any other applicant country.
- - -
Then what?
Britain will have to strike new trade deals with Europe and amend its laws that were based on EU legislation. It will take a long time to sort all of that out.
For one thing, it's still unclear exactly what sort of relationship Britain will be able to strike with the European Union. As my colleague Griff Witte has reported, there are essentially four models ranging from what Norway or Iceland has - in which Britain would be a member of the European Economic Area and essentially keep access to the European common market - to simply no deal at all, falling back on its membership of the World Trade Organization to set terms of trading.
Many suspect that the European Union may try to "punish" Britain and deter other countries from making their own exit with a lousy deal. However, if the economic fallout is as bad as some have predicted, it's also possible that European leaders may seek to calm markets with a quick and easy deal.
- - -
Will Parliament agree?
The Brexit referendum isn't binding in itself; any deal will have to be approved by Britain's Parliament. This means that pro-remain MPs - i.e. the majority of Parliament - may try to block any deal that they think doesn't give the country enough access to the European Union. The pressure could in turn lead to calls for a new general election.
It does seem unlikely that British MPs would flagrantly go against the wishes of the electorate by totally blocking a Brexit, but they could well use their power to influence negotiations.
- - -
Will Cameron resign?
Cameron gambled by calling the referendum. If "remain" loses, he will have lost that gamble. Although the prime minister has said he would not resign in the wake of a vote for Brexit, many in Britain will expect him to resign. It's possible that he may not do so right away - he may set a timetable to step down or wait for a leadership challenge. If the economic fallout is particularly bad, he may argue that he needs to stay in office to help steer Britain back on course, a process that could take months.
Boris Johnson, the colorful former mayor of London, who was a loud voice in the Brexit campaign, is likely to be the favorite for new leader of the Conservative Party. However, his time in office may not last long. If a new leader of the Conservatives is selected, there will be pressure for the leader to call a general election.
- - -
What would happen to the financial markets?
This all means a lot of uncertainty for a considerable amount of time, and uncertainty is something markets do not like. Many expect the value of the pound to immediately drop on Friday if Britain votes out - investor George Soros has suggested a drop of 15 percent to 20 percent. The euro is also expected to lose some value in the short term at least.
Stocks also are expected to be hit, with British Chancellor George Osborne hinting this week that he could suspend trading on London's stock market on Friday if Britain votes out of Europe. The financial impact is likely to be global, with implications for American readers, too.
A wide variety of financial institutions have made dire predictions about the long-term economic effects of a Brexit. Of course, these are predictions. What will happen ultimately isn't certain, but short-term pain for Britain and others seems very likely.
- - -
What would happen to the European Union?
The vote will definitely shake the grand European vision. It will certainly provide fuel for anti-EU politicians all over the continent. Recent polls have shown that countries such as France and Italy want their own votes on EU membership, and populists such as the French National Front's Marine Le Pen have found Euroskepticism to be a powerful message to voters.
At the least, it will give the European Union another logistical problem at a time when it has many others already to deal with, including the refugee crisis, the economic issues across the euro zone and the continuing threat of Russian aggression.
- - -
But what happens if 'remain' wins?
In theory, nothing will really change. Britons would have voted to keep the status quo. Cameron probably will give a statement outside No. 10 Downing Street early Friday. Financial markets, which had been fearful of the uncertainty, will be buoyed. The pound and the FTSE 100 stock market index probably will rise.
Some doubts will remain, however. Although Cameron is likely to stay in office in the immediate term, the election will have revealed the deep divisions within his Conservative Party. It's unclear how Cameron will treat senior members of his party who led the "leave" campaign. He may try to keep these politicians, namely Johnson and Michael Gove, close to him in a bid to calm his party's divisions, although most suspect he'll wait until the party conference in October before reshuffling his cabinet.
On the other hand, if the vote is especially close, Cameron could face a leadership challenge regardless of the fact that his campaign won. Pro-Brexit leader Nigel Farage has also suggested that there should be a second referendum if the vote is close, although other politicians have said this should not be a possibility.
The Washington Post
Fri Jun 24 2016
![What will happen now that Britain has voted to leave the EU What will happen now that Britain has voted to leave the EU](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/http://img.astroawani.com/2016-06/41466751653_EUReferendum.jpg)
No country has ever voted to leave the European Union before, and it's not clear how things should proceed. -Filepix
Kerajaan cadang perkenal pembiayaan swasta
Kerajaan menyasarkan untuk memperkenalkan pembiayaan swasta alternatif bagi memastikan kemampanan kewangan program sektor air, sekali gus mengurangkan kebergantungan pada perbelanjaan kerajaan dan mengukuhkan daya tahan.
Saya tak fitnah Guan Eng, cuma jelaskan siasatan SPRM - Muhyiddin
Presiden Bersatu Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin memberitahu Mahkamah Tinggi Kuala Lumpur hari ini bahawa beliau tidak memfitnah Lim Guan Eng berhubung isu pengecualian cukai terhadap Yayasan Albukhary
KPT alu-alukan dapatan, cadangan PAC - Zambry
Ini termasuklah cadangan pelaksanaan Garis Panduan Pelaburan dan Pembiayaan oleh Universiti Awam 2024 kepada anak-anak syarikat di bawah seliaan Kementerian Pendidikan Tinggi (KPT).
Lebih 340,000 syarikat buat transaksi serah simpan maklumat pemunyaan benefisial
Sebanyak 340,637 syarikat telah membuat transaksi serah simpan maklumat pemunyaan benefisial (beneficial ownership) bagi tempoh 1 April hingga 14 Julai lepas.
Polis tunggu laporan makmal tentukan punca kematian Nur Farah Kartini
Polis sedang menunggu laporan makmal bagi menentukan punca kematian berhubung kes pembunuhan bekas penuntut Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris, Nur Farah Kartini Abdullah.
Mahkamah Persekutuan kekal hukuman mati ke atas bapa
Mahkamah Persekutuan di sini hari ini mengekalkan hukuman gantung sampai mati terhadap seorang bapa yang membunuh anak tiri lelakinya yang berusia enam tahun, 13 tahun lepas.
Keluarga mohon henti keluar kenyataan guris hati
Keluarga Nur Farah Kartini Abdullah yang ditemukan mati di sebuah ladang kelapa sawit di Kampung Sri Kledang, Hulu Selangor petang Isnin memohon pihak media dan orang ramai berhenti mengeluarkan kenyataan yang boleh mengguris hati keluarga.
Enam ditemukan maut di sebuah hotel di Bangkok
Enam orang ditemukan maut di sebuah hotel di Bangkok, Thailand pada Selasa.
Polis Thailand dalam satu kenyataan memaklumkan, pihaknya menerima panggilan kecemasan daripada kakitangan Hotel Grand Hyatt Erawan pada jam 5.30 petang yang memaklumkan mengenai penemuan mayat itu.
Jelas kenyataan itu lagi, kesemua mangsa merupakan warga asing.
Polis Thailand dalam satu kenyataan memaklumkan, pihaknya menerima panggilan kecemasan daripada kakitangan Hotel Grand Hyatt Erawan pada jam 5.30 petang yang memaklumkan mengenai penemuan mayat itu.
Jelas kenyataan itu lagi, kesemua mangsa merupakan warga asing.
Disyaki terima rasuah melebihi RM300,000, ketua pegawai operasi ditahan
Seorang Ketua Pegawai Operasi syarikat konsesi lebuh raya ditahan Suruhanjaya Pencegahan Rasuah Malaysia (SPRM), kerana disyaki menerima rasuah melebihi RM300,000.
Mahkamah tolak rayuan Jason Lo
Bekas Ketua Pegawai Eksekutif syarikat telekomunikasi tempatan, Jason Jonathan Lo hari ini gagal mengetepikan keputusan Mahkamah Tinggi menolak samannya terhadap Pertubuhan Berita Nasional Malaysia (Bernama) berhubung dua artikel yang diterbitkan pada 2019 dan 2020.
![Tidak realistik untuk runding semula protokol - Suruhanjaya Eropah Tidak realistik untuk runding semula protokol - Suruhanjaya Eropah](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2022-06/71655173500_MarosSefcovic.jpg)
Tidak realistik untuk runding semula protokol - Suruhanjaya Eropah
Badan eksekutif Kesatuan Eropah itu akan melancarkan prosedur pelanggaran bagi melindungi pasaran tunggal blok itu daripada risiko pencabulan protokol.
![Pasca-Brexit: Kekurangan bekalan makanan dibimbangi di UK Pasca-Brexit: Kekurangan bekalan makanan dibimbangi di UK](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2022-01/51641081595_Lorriesqueue.jpg)
Pasca-Brexit: Kekurangan bekalan makanan dibimbangi di UK
Bermula 1 Jan, pengimport mesti membuat pengisytiharan kastam penuh mengenai barangan yang dibawa masuk ke UK dari EU atau negara lain.
![Pemuda UMNO cadang pembentukan Kabinet Perang Pemuda UMNO cadang pembentukan Kabinet Perang](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2021-07/81625726548_DatukDrAsyrafWajd.jpg)
Pemuda UMNO cadang pembentukan Kabinet Perang
Perdana Menteri boleh meletakkan jawatan atau menasihati Yang di-Pertuan Agong untuk membubarkan Parlimen jika tidak lagi mendapat majoriti.
![Berita antarabangsa pilihan sepanjang hari ini Berita antarabangsa pilihan sepanjang hari ini](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2021-04/51617796933_BAP.jpg)
Berita antarabangsa pilihan sepanjang hari ini
Antara pelbagai berita luar negara yang disiarkan di Astro AWANI, berikut adalah antara yang paling menjadi tumpuan sepanjang hari ini.
![Pasca-Brexit: Kesatuan Eropah tidak akan runding semula perjanjian asal Pasca-Brexit: Kesatuan Eropah tidak akan runding semula perjanjian asal](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2021-07/71626997154_UrsulavonderLeyen.jpg)
Pasca-Brexit: Kesatuan Eropah tidak akan runding semula perjanjian asal
Kerajaan UK sebelum ini menyatakan, pemeriksaan sempadan yang dikenakan terhadap barangan dari Ireland Utara terbukti tidak dapat dilaksanakan.
![Berita antarabangsa pilihan sepanjang hari ini Berita antarabangsa pilihan sepanjang hari ini](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2021-04/51617709639_BAP.jpg)
Berita antarabangsa pilihan sepanjang hari ini
Antara pelbagai berita luar negara yang disiarkan di Astro AWANI, berikut adalah antara yang paling menjadi tumpuan sepanjang hari ini.
![Hubungan dengan EU: UK minta runding semula babitkan peraturan dagang Hubungan dengan EU: UK minta runding semula babitkan peraturan dagang](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2021-07/61626914345_TBBORIS.jpg)
Hubungan dengan EU: UK minta runding semula babitkan peraturan dagang
Protokol itu perlu ditulis semula kerana ia melemahkan proses perdamaian dan mempengaruhi kehidupan rakyat di Ireland Utara.
![Pasca-Brexit: Parlimen Eropah akan sahkan perjanjian perdagangan Pasca-Brexit: Parlimen Eropah akan sahkan perjanjian perdagangan](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2021-04/81619526725_TBEUBREXITx.jpg)
Pasca-Brexit: Parlimen Eropah akan sahkan perjanjian perdagangan
Rancangan asal EU bertujuan mengelak pembukaan sempadan antara Ireland dengan Ireland Utara menjadi pintu belakang bagi bekalan vaksin.
![Nelayan Britain berdepan risiko hilang pendapatan susulan larangan eksport EU Nelayan Britain berdepan risiko hilang pendapatan susulan larangan eksport EU](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2019-04/41554784867_MAKANANLAUT.jpg)
Nelayan Britain berdepan risiko hilang pendapatan susulan larangan eksport EU
Larangan itu dibuat selepas Britain meninggalkan EU pada 1 Januari lalu, yang mana hasil laut yang berkenaan perlu dibersihkan sebelum digunakan dan tidak boleh dijual kepada 27 ahli blok berkenaan.
![Kalau tidak politik, kami nak main apa, Mak Yong, congkak? - Salahuddin Ayub Kalau tidak politik, kami nak main apa, Mak Yong, congkak? - Salahuddin Ayub](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2021-01/81611040500_SalahuddinAyub.jpg)
Kalau tidak politik, kami nak main apa, Mak Yong, congkak? - Salahuddin Ayub
Pakatan Harapan (PH) akan terus berpolitik demi memastikan suara rakyat terus didengari meskipun ada desakan supaya sebarang bentuk politik dihentikan buat masa ini.