From millions in Cairo's Tahrir Square two years ago, revolting against Hosni Mubarak's repressive rule and chanting "Silmiyya, silmiyya" (peaceful, peaceful), to a bloody Wednesday, with hundreds dead and many more wounded as security forces stormed sit-ins by supporters of ousted president Mohammed Morsi. From a mostly peaceful transition to a violent crackdown. From calls for democracy to a state of emergency.
How did Egypt turn so dark?
Much of Egypt's crisis comes down to a battle over identity. Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood overestimated the extent to which Egyptians identify with Islam. And now, with their violent repression of the Muslim Brotherhood, the generals who ousted Morsi risk underestimating it.
Over the past decade, I've conducted opinion polls in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and have found two consistent trends. First, citizens identify less and less with their countries and identify more and more with Islam and as Arabs. Second, Egyptians see themselves as the most religious people in the world.
The Muslim Brotherhood, which began the post-Mubarak era with justified confidence in its superior political organization, surely must have interpreted such trends as great support for its cause. (This belief was expressed by the group's former murshed, or guide, as early as 2006 when he said, "Tuz fi Misr," roughly, "To hell with Egypt.") But the group drew the wrong lessons from these trends.
Arabs, like most people, have many contending collective identities, and the weight of each shifts over time; there is rarely a lasting equilibrium. Over the past decade, the rise in people identifying primarily as Muslim was not all or even mostly due to expanding Islamist aspirations. Instead, it resulted mainly from declining identification with the state, thanks to government failings on domestic and foreign policy. Also, the extraordinarily long tenures of individual leaders — Moammar Gadhafi ruled for 42 years and Mubarak for 30 — made it difficult for people to separate state from unpopular ruler. But a vote against something is not the same as a vote in favor of something else.
Moreover, when Islam itself appears under assault from external forces — as Muslims overwhelmingly perceived it to be in the decade after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 — it becomes especially difficult to separate religious identity from popular defiance. You are what you have to defend. For some Egyptians, claiming Islamic identity is about faith, but for many others it is merely about asserting the right to be Muslim and to accept sharia law in the face of Western assault. Muslims do not want to apologize for who they are, for their faith and for all it entails.
Even attitudes about sharia are easily misunderstood. In my May 2012 poll, two-thirds of respondents said they supported making sharia the basis of Egyptian law. But when I probed more deeply, things became less clear: Of those who supported sharia as the basis of law, only 17 percent said they preferred applying it literally, while 83 percent said they favored applying the spirit of sharia but with adaptations to modern times. Little surprise that Egyptian commentator Muhammad Hassanein Heikal describes Egypt as a "civil-secular country that loves religion."
For the overwhelming majority of Arabs, as for any broadly defined group, collective aspirations help determine the relative power of identities. When Pan Arabism seemed a more effective vehicle for the attainment of dignity at home and abroad in the 1950s, for instance, a shift toward an Arab identity became evident. Similarly, when Islam appeared to be the better vehicle, a shift occurred in that direction. The moves from one identity to another, from Arab to Egyptian to Muslim, reflect citizens' assessment of their chances to reach their goals. And if there was anything clear after Morsi's first year in office, it was that the public's aspirations were dashed by the government's domestic and international failures.
Islamists may have also misunderstood Arab attitudes about democracy. When Egyptians are asked which country they would want their own nation to look like, their top choice has been Turkey, a democratic Islamic nation ruled by an Islamist party. And in 2011 and 2012, Egyptians and other Arabs identified Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as the leader they most admired outside their own country.
It is easy to misinterpret such admiration as Arabs seeking only the right mix of Islam and democracy. But the reasons are far more complex, as I found in my polling results. Arabs want a combination of many things that Turkey's model offered: a country that balances democracy and culture, but also a stable, strong, prosperous nation, and one that makes them feel proud on the world stage. Erdogan, who personally symbolized the mix of Islam and democracy in many Arab minds — at least until the recent upheavals in Turkey — was not selected by Arabs as the favorite leader until he was seen as standing up to Israel on the 2008-09 Gaza war.
Overall, the resonance of political Islam in the Arab world — and in Egypt in particular — has been exaggerated. To win the presidency last year, the Muslim Brotherhood could rely on its political machinery and the disarray of its opponents; it didn't need to win the hearts of most Egyptians. But as Morsi learned too late, it couldn't govern without broader public support.
However, if Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood overestimated the Islamists' appeal, Egypt's transitional rulers seem ready to dismiss it too easily. Public rejection of the Brotherhood does not translate into an embrace of the generals. Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi's popularity could be fleeting: Despite the Egyptian public's long-held admiration of the military as an institution, especially immediately after the revolution, their opinion of the generals changed within months, with only 18 percent of Egyptians polled saying they had advanced the goals of the revolution by May 2012.
It is too early to measure the impact of the bloodshed on the generals' public support, but the coalition around them has conflicting aims and values, even if they were united against Morsi — and it is beginning to fracture, most notably with the departure of Vice President Mohamed ElBaradei.
It was easy enough to use public disenchantment with Morsi and the muscle of the military to gain power. But in an era of heightened expectations and free-flowing information, a Mubarak-style regime cannot return. It is now impossible to govern Egypt by repressing the Brotherhood and its supporters, who have become indispensable parts of an empowered citizenry.
The bloody path chosen this past week takes Egypt into the unknown. What we do know is that all Egyptians are prepared to pay a price to have their voices heard. If that can no longer happen peacefully, Egypt must brace itself for the violent radicalization that makes democracy impossible. -- The Washington Post.
__________________________________
Telhami is the Anwar Sadat professor of peace and development at the University of Maryland and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy. He is the author of "The World Through Arab Eyes: Arab Public Opinion and the Reshaping of the Middle East."
Shibley Telhami
Wed Aug 21 2013
![LHDN berjaya kutip RM512.6 juta melalui PKPS 2.0 - Amir Hamzah LHDN berjaya kutip RM512.6 juta melalui PKPS 2.0 - Amir Hamzah](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2024-07/61719994976_TBAMIRHAMZAHjpg.jpg)
LHDN berjaya kutip RM512.6 juta melalui PKPS 2.0 - Amir Hamzah
LHDN telah mengutip RM512.6 juta daripada keseluruhan taksiran cukai berjumlah RM1.29 billion sepanjang tempoh PKPS 2.0.
Positif COVID-19 tidak perlu kemaskini MySejahtera
Jika didapati positif Covid-19, para pesakit tidak lagi perlu untuk mengemaskini status kesihatan terkini di aplikasi Mysejahtera, kerana covid seharusnya dirawat sama seperti jangkitan saluran penafasan yang lain.
Kandungan video promosi Georgetown Festival diturunkan
Pasukan George Town Festival 2024 telah menurunkan semua siaran berkaitan video promosi sambutan 'George Town Festival 2024' atas dakwaan menyinggung perasaan budaya Melayu di Pulau Pinang yang seperti dilupai.
Ia berikutan tular penyiaran video promosi sambutan 'George Town Festival 2024' yang didakwa hanya mempromosikan kebudayaan kaum Cina dan India.
Ia berikutan tular penyiaran video promosi sambutan 'George Town Festival 2024' yang didakwa hanya mempromosikan kebudayaan kaum Cina dan India.
![KPM akan teliti sukarelawan dari Singapura, alu-alukan pesara guru Bahasa Inggeris di Malaysia KPM akan teliti sukarelawan dari Singapura, alu-alukan pesara guru Bahasa Inggeris di Malaysia](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2024-06/61717914416_TBfadhlinasidek.jpg)
KPM akan teliti sukarelawan dari Singapura, alu-alukan pesara guru Bahasa Inggeris di Malaysia
KPM sentiasa terbuka dan mengalu-alukan pesara guru bahasa Inggeris dalam negara untuk terlibat dalam PdP bagi meningkatkan penguasaan bahasa tersebut.
Pengajar Bahasa Inggeris dari Singapura, antara tumpuan
Penglibatan tenaga pengajar dari Singapura antara yang menjadi tumpuan di Dewan Rakyat pada Isnin.
Negara kekurangan tekong, beri kesan kekurangan ikan
Malaysia berhadapan kekurangan tekong tempatan berpengalaman yang ketara untuk kapal nelayan tempatan, terutama bagi perikanan laut dalam.
Menteri Pertanian dan Keterjaminan Makanan Datuk Seri Mohamad Sabu berkata lebih ramai tekong tempatan perlu dilahirkan, kerana pada ketika ini orang luar terpaksa digunakan dan diberi peluang untuk berkhidmat sebagai tekong kapal nelayan tempatan di negara ini.
Menteri Pertanian dan Keterjaminan Makanan Datuk Seri Mohamad Sabu berkata lebih ramai tekong tempatan perlu dilahirkan, kerana pada ketika ini orang luar terpaksa digunakan dan diberi peluang untuk berkhidmat sebagai tekong kapal nelayan tempatan di negara ini.
Jenayah: Polis sahkan suspek teman lelaki Nur Farah Kartini
Lelaki yang ditahan polis bagi membantu siasatan berhubung penemuan mayat Nur Farah Kartini Abdullah, adalah teman lelakinya.
Suspek kes kematian Nur Farah Kartini direman tujuh hari
Seorang penjawat awam yang dikaitkan dengan penemuan mayat Nur Farah Kartini Abdullah, direman selama tujuh hari bagi membantu siasatan kes tersebut.
[TERKINI] Pan Gon bakal umum letak jawatan hari ini?
Tidak ada maklumat lanjut berkaitan sidang media berkenaan walaupun desas desus mengatakan ia melibatkan kepimpinan tertinggi FAM atau barisan kejurulatihan skuad Harimau Malaya?
Bukan masa sesuai untuk perkenalkan semula GST - Amir Hamzah
Menteri Kewangan II, Datuk Seri Amir Hamzah Azizan berkata bukan masa sesuai untuk perkenal semula GST. Katanya, kerajaan hanya akan perkenalkan cukai yang tidak memberi kesan kepada golongan rentan.
#AWANInews #SisiTVParlimen
#AWANInews #SisiTVParlimen
![Ebit Liew masuk Gaza hari ini, serah dua treler ubat dan keperluan asas kepada rakyat Palestin Ebit Liew masuk Gaza hari ini, serah dua treler ubat dan keperluan asas kepada rakyat Palestin](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2021-05/51622273288_EbitLewBantuanP.jpg)
Ebit Liew masuk Gaza hari ini, serah dua treler ubat dan keperluan asas kepada rakyat Palestin
Ebit Lew mengakui air matanya tidak dapat dibendung lagi usia mengaminkan doa sejurus bantuan disampaikan.
![Konflik di Gaza: Angka korban rakyat Palestin meningkat kepada 30 Konflik di Gaza: Angka korban rakyat Palestin meningkat kepada 30](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2021-05/41620780006_Streaksoflight.jpg)
Konflik di Gaza: Angka korban rakyat Palestin meningkat kepada 30
Serangan udara oleh Israel berterusan manakala Hamas membalas dengan menembak roket ke Tel Aviv.
![Bandar hilang berusia 3,000 tahun ditemui di Mesir Bandar hilang berusia 3,000 tahun ditemui di Mesir](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/https://img.astroawani.com/2021-04/41618099949_PasuAntik.jpg)
Bandar hilang berusia 3,000 tahun ditemui di Mesir
Kawasan yang ditemui menerusi satu misi arkeologi itu lengkap dengan tinggalan struktur rumah yang diperbuat daripada tanah liat, serta artifak-artifak bersejarah dan alatan dari zaman firaun.
![Berita tempatan pilihan sepanjang hari ini Berita tempatan pilihan sepanjang hari ini](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/http://img.astroawani.com/2020-07/41594735361_BTP.jpg)
Berita tempatan pilihan sepanjang hari ini
Antara pelbagai berita dalam negara yang disiarkan di Astro AWANI, berikut adalah yang paling menjadi tumpuan sepanjang hari ini, Ahad, 2 Ogos 2020.
![COVID-19: Rayuan kecualikan caj kuarantin pelajar Malaysia dari Yaman - YPC COVID-19: Rayuan kecualikan caj kuarantin pelajar Malaysia dari Yaman - YPC](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/http://img.astroawani.com/2020-07/81594036054_syedalialhabshee.jpg)
COVID-19: Rayuan kecualikan caj kuarantin pelajar Malaysia dari Yaman - YPC
Muhyiddin dirayu agar segera campur tangan mengatasi masalah caj kuarantin yang difahamkan dikenakan sebanyak RM1,890 ke atas pelajar Malaysia yang baru pulang dari Yaman pada pagi Ahad.
![131 rakyat Malaysia terkandas di Yaman tiba di tanah air - Wisma Putra 131 rakyat Malaysia terkandas di Yaman tiba di tanah air - Wisma Putra](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/http://img.astroawani.com/2020-02/41582209757_KamarudinJaffar.jpg)
131 rakyat Malaysia terkandas di Yaman tiba di tanah air - Wisma Putra
Kumpulan pertama rakyat Malaysia seramai 131 orang yang dilaporkan terkandas di Yaman sejak Mac lepas susulan pandemik COVID-19, selamat tiba di KLIA pada pagi Ahad.
![Pelakon 'Twilight' meninggal dunia Pelakon 'Twilight' meninggal dunia](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/http://img.astroawani.com/2020-05/81589848345_GregTyreeBoycewas.jpg)
Pelakon 'Twilight' meninggal dunia
Mendiang Boyce dijumpai bersama mayat teman wanitanya Natalie Adepoju, 27, di Las Vegas, Nevada.
![Sampai berdarah hidung mahu jumpa Mo Salah Sampai berdarah hidung mahu jumpa Mo Salah](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/http://img.astroawani.com/2019-08/81565497195_MohamedSalah.jpg)
Sampai berdarah hidung mahu jumpa Mo Salah
Dalam kekecohan itu, dia terlanggar tiang lampu lalu rebah terbaring dalam keadaan tidak sedar.
![Laungan 'Laillahaillallah, As-Syahid Habibullah' iringi jenazah Dr Fadi Laungan 'Laillahaillallah, As-Syahid Habibullah' iringi jenazah Dr Fadi](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/http://img.astroawani.com/2018-04/61524637983_MajlisPengkebumianDr.jpg)
Laungan 'Laillahaillallah, As-Syahid Habibullah' iringi jenazah Dr Fadi
Laungan -Laillahaillallah, as-Syahid Habibullah- berkumandang di Surau Medan Idaman, Setapak, tatkala jenazah Imam Dr Fadi Al-Batsh dibawa masuk ke perkarangan surau itu.
![Lebih 1,000 lagi pelajar dibawa pulang sebelum Jumaat Lebih 1,000 lagi pelajar dibawa pulang sebelum Jumaat](https://resizer-awani.eco.astro.com.my/tr:w-177,h-100,q-100,f-auto/http://img.astroawani.com/2013-08/61377245108_295x200.jpg)
Lebih 1,000 lagi pelajar dibawa pulang sebelum Jumaat
Seramai 1,328 pelajar selamat dihantar pulang menerusi Ops Piramid 2 setakat hari ini.